NEW YORK: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar cautioned that ongoing global conflicts and the resulting disruptions to grain shipments and fertiliser production threatened to trigger a major food crisis in the coming months, placing severe compounding pressure on developing nations.
Speaking at an event organised by the Asia Society in New York, EAM Jaishankar linked the looming risks directly to acute strains across energy supplies, grain exports, fertilisers, and global finance. He emphasised that the profound ripple effects of the Ukraine conflict and the Iran-Gulf crisis are resonating heavily far beyond the borders of the nations directly involved.
Detailing the severity of the agricultural bottleneck, he noted, “We are already looking at major significant fertiliser shortages,” while highlighting that key grain exporters would face severe impediments in dispatching shipments, particularly through critical Black Sea corridors.
“We are really looking at a very difficult global situation…”, says EAM Jaishankar at Asia Society pic.twitter.com/rkZRsrSB99
— Sidhant Sibal (@sidhant) September 29, 2026
Underscoring the gravity of the outlook, EAM Jaishankar warned, “So there is gonna be a major food crisis probably, you know, in the coming months.” His remarks framed the unfolding situation as an imminent systemic risk rather than an inevitable conclusion that has already materialised.
Energy security remains another acute source of anxiety. Pointing out that global markets remain tight, he cautioned that politically driven decisions impacting oil supplies could artificially inflate prices at a time when nations urgently require macroeconomic stability, describing supply security and associated geopolitical interference as deeply intertwined pressures.
The cascading consequences extend far beyond inflationary spikes. EAM Jaishankar noted that international conflicts naturally drive capital towards safer financial havens, actively draining investments away from the Global South. Nations confronting simultaneous shocks across food, fuel, fertilisers, and finance find themselves left with minimal fiscal buffer to absorb further volatility.
Arguing against insular policymaking, he asserted that global leaders cannot simply dismiss collateral economic damage inflicted on other states as unintended. Policymakers bear a fundamental responsibility to weigh the wider, cross-border repercussions of their unilateral decisions.
Challenging self-serving policy approaches, EAM Jaishankar stated, “Countries should not be so self-centred that you’re in your own world and take your decision.” He stressed that leaders must remain cognisant of how their domestic actions impact populations elsewhere, particularly in resource-constrained regions with limited capacity to react.
The minister further cautioned against permitting vulnerable developing states to descend into deep economic distress, reminding audiences that historical breakdowns in governance invariably carry severe global security costs, making basic needs provisioning a matter of shared common sense and international solidarity.
Diplomacy has become an extreme sport..but you need to have the patience of chess, EAM Jaishankar says as he points to current situation
Vdo source: Asia Society pic.twitter.com/FBbN1pEt7u
— Sidhant Sibal (@sidhant) September 29, 2026
As a post-colonial society, India maintains a profound connection with the struggles of the developing world, he noted. However, he maintained that wealthier industrialised nations also possess a pragmatic, vested interest in pre-empting widespread instability, pointing specifically to the political fallout of economic stress witnessed in India’s immediate neighbourhood following the outbreak of the Ukraine war.
EAM Jaishankar articulated these observations during a broader discourse examining the acute pressures confronting nations striving to maintain diplomatic autonomy amidst intensifying great power competition. He noted that a state’s capacity to preserve such independence varies depending on specific geopolitical stakes and the nature of the issue at hand.
In his opening remarks, the minister characterised food, fuel, fertilisers, and finance as an interconnected four-part crisis currently destabilising much of the globe. He also warned that measurable progress towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, adopted in 2015 as a comprehensive framework to tackle poverty, health, education, and development priorities by 2030, is falling severely behind schedule, compounding vulnerabilities for nations already exposed to active conflict and supply chain disruptions.
Jaishankar also observed that the geopolitical landscape is deeply rattled by active warfare, fiscal pressures, and the rising weaponisation of trade links, cautioning that contemporary statecraft entails extraordinary risks as nations vie for leverage.
Jaishankar drew attention to two major ongoing conflicts, widespread instability across West Asia, armed fighting in parts of Africa, and increasing systemic strain bearing down on the developing world. He noted that global supply chains face growing fragility while essential resources including food, fuel, fertilisers, and financial mechanisms remain heavily pressured.
Describing the friction between economic integration and state rivalry as a defining dilemma, he stated that “the paradox of our times” involves countries remaining deeply connected yet increasingly inclined to use those connections as sources of leverage. “The interdependence is the reality, the competition is the sentiment,” EAM Jaishankar said, adding that policy formulation continually reflects the intense challenge of balancing these opposing realities.
He explained that when one country depended on another for a critical need, intense competition created an incentive to turn that dependence into a tool of pressure, resulting in a more hazardous environment for governments trying to protect their interests while keeping relationships intact.
“Diplomacy has become an extreme sport,” EAM Jaishankar said, explaining that diplomats had to respond to high-risk decisions and their consequences, while retaining the patience needed to work through longer disputes.
He highlighted several strategic chokepoints, identifying critical geographic shipping routes, economic sanctions, travel restrictions, and market access points. States possessing direct influence over any of these gateways showed an increased readiness to deploy them against strategic rivals.
Stating that energy markets and technological advancements had further altered calculations, EAM Jaishankar explained that disruption in a major energy-producing region had raised prices and forced countries to adjust, while advances in military technology could also give governments greater confidence in taking risks.
Arguing that the world had become more impatient, he noted that where deterrence had once been a common approach, countries with new capabilities could feel a temptation to use them, describing it as a “use it or lose it” mindset.
Furthermore, EAM Jaishankar pointed to a broader rebalancing of global economic and political power. Rising economies and established nations experiencing relative declines were both actively adjusting to these shifts, generating uncertainty that reverberated through domestic politics and international relations alike.
Questioning whether multilateral architectures founded under outdated power hierarchies can effectively adapt, he observed that the UN began with 51 members in a vastly different world, and its future relevance depended in part on how it responded to present-day realities.
EAM Jaishankar mentioned that countries were seeking new partners, diversifying their relationships and looking for ways to reduce risk, adding that new understandings could emerge, though he expected negotiations to be difficult.
Offering a pragmatic outlook during a subsequent discussion, EAM Jaishankar stated, “I’m not pessimistic about the world,” noting that countries had an interest in finding stable and reliable arrangements even as competition intensified.
The United Nations was established in 1945, after the Second World War, and while its membership and work have expanded substantially since then, debate has continued over whether its decision-making structures adequately reflect today’s world.
India has called for reform of international institutions and a greater voice for developing countries, also working through forums with different memberships, including the G20, BRICS and the Quad. (ANI)
