WASHINGTON: This week, the United States and China are expected to use Asia’s top security meeting to trade blows over everything — from Taiwan’s sovereignty to the war in Ukraine — although both sides have signalled a willingness to discuss resolving their differences.
The Shangri-La Dialogue, which attracts high-ranking military officials, diplomats and weapons manufacturers from around the world, will take place in Singapore from June 10 to June 12. This will be the first time the event has taken place since 2019 after being postponed twice due to Covid-19.
On the sidelines of the summit, it is anticipated that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Minister of National Defense, General Wei Fenghe, will have their first face-to-face meeting since President Joe Biden assumed office more than two years ago.
A senior US official stated, “We anticipate that the focus of the meeting will be on managing competition in regional and global issues.”
According to Chinese media, Beijing will also use the summit to discuss cooperation with the United States.
Austin and Wei are likely to use their weekend speeches to reaffirm their commitment to the Asia-Pacific region while also making pointed remarks about the other.
In recent months, relations between China and the United States have been tense, with the world’s two largest economies clashing over China’s belligerence towards Taiwan, its military activity in the South China Sea, and Beijing’s attempts to expand its influence in the Pacific region.
Even though the focus of the summit is on Asian security issues, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will continue to dominate discussions. Last week marked the 100th day of the conflict, which has killed tens of thousands of people, displaced millions, and reduced cities to rubble.
According to a source familiar with the list of attendees, Ukraine will send a delegation to the meeting, but the Russians will not be present.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, remarked, “American participants will use the opportunity to criticise China’s strategic partnership with Russia.”
“There will be some inferences that the China-Russia partnership is a coalition of autocracies… China will defend its relationship with Russia, as well as its position and policy toward Ukraine.”
With US military and political capital consumed by the conflict in Ukraine, Austin will be under pressure to convince China’s Asian rivals that they can depend on the United States.
“They assert that China is a significant threat, going so far as to call it an acute threat. However, it appears that the majority of attention and resources are focused on Europe”, Elbridge Colby, a former top Pentagon official, stated. It is not about words, but rather about actions.
Taiwan will likely dominate bilateral discussions between the United States and China, as well as the majority of the conference.
China, which claims democratic Taiwan as its own territory, has increased military activity near the island over the past two years in response to what it calls “collusion” between Taiwan and the United States.
Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the think tank RAND Corporation, stated, “The US is going to come out swinging on Taiwan in particular, as well as China’s growing assertiveness throughout the Indo-Pacific.”
This month, President Biden stated that the United States would intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan, although the administration has since clarified that US policy has not changed and that Washington does not support Taiwan’s independence.
Washington has maintained a longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan’s military defence.
The Pacific islands have also emerged as a key front in the strategic competition between the United States and China.
The special envoy of President Biden is scheduled to visit the Marshall Islands the following week, amidst growing U.S. concerns over China’s efforts to expand its influence in the region. Ten Pacific foreign ministers agreed last week at a virtual meeting hosted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Fiji to postpone consideration of a Chinese proposal for a comprehensive trade and security pact.
Also looming over the Shangri-La Dialogue is the growing military threat posed by North Korea, which has conducted at least 18 rounds of weapons tests this year, demonstrating the development of its nuclear and missile arsenals.
On Wednesday, officials from South Korea, the United States, and Japan described North Korea’s recent missile tests as “grave, illegal provocation.”
On Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will deliver a keynote address in which he is expected to call for peaceful resolutions to disputes in the Asia-Pacific region.