RBI’s decision to hold rates unchanged reflects cautious stance amid uncertainty: Experts

NEW DELHI: Industry experts have widely welcomed the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5 per cent, calling it a measured and prudent approach in the current economic environment.

Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Valuation and Ratings, said, “The ongoing trade-off between economic growth and inflation warranted a cautious approach. The RBI rightly chose to retain its neutral policy stance, which aligns with our forecast and reflects the current economic realities. As the popular American saying goes, ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’.”

He added that this sagacious MPC decision underscores the RBI’s careful calibration of policies aimed at managing inflation while supporting growth, a delicate balancing act critical in today’s uncertain global and domestic economic environment. Sharma emphasized that by not rushing into rate cuts, the RBI has demonstrated a prudent and forward-thinking approach.

Anshuman Magazine, chairman and CEO for India, South-East Asia, Middle East, and Africa at CBRE, noted that the decision reflects a measured approach ahead of the festive season and amid volatile global macroeconomic conditions.

“Along with the recent GST cuts and range-bound inflation, the announcement is likely to lift consumer sentiment and encourage greater demand across key sectors in the coming weeks. In real estate, it signals a steady growth outlook and reinforces market confidence, offering long-term predictability to developers and homebuyers,” he said.

Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner, Equity and PMS at AlphaaMoney, highlighted concerns regarding uncertainties around US tariffs on India, which now appear to be broadening beyond goods. He suggested that rate cuts may come only after a trade agreement with the US is in place and noted that the RBI’s inflation projections for the March and June quarters may be too high.

Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research and REIS, India, at JLL, emphasized that holding the repo rate is a sign of confidence rather than hesitation. He explained that while inflation expectations are low and actual inflation is within comfort zones, the RBI is looking beyond the immediate impact.

“The committee is focusing on allowing the complete transmission of the previous 100 bps rate cut and the effect of recent GST rationalization on construction materials to take full effect. For the residential market, this stability in capital cost provides a clear runway for developers”, Das said.

Jyoti Prakash Gadia, Managing Director at Resurgent India, added that the central bank has observed that transmission of the previous 1 per cent rate cut during 2025 is still incomplete. “Along with global tariff uncertainties, this has prompted the RBI to continue the pause rather than make immediate changes. However, there remains hope for a rate cut in the near future as the RBI estimates inflation will decline to 2.6 per cent, providing room for further easing,” he said.

Shubham Gupta, CFA and co-founder of Growthvine Capital, said that while the repo rate decision and neutral stance were widely expected, the upward revision of FY26 growth to 6.8 per cent and a lower CPI forecast of 2.6 per cent provide a dovish undertone. “Bond markets are likely to take comfort from the reduced inflation forecast. Equities should read this as supportive for domestic demand, though caution on U.S. tariffs tempers aggressive risk-on bets,” he noted.

Mayur Modi, Co-Founder, Co-CEO, and COO of Moneyboxx Finance, welcomed the CRR cut and measures to ease credit flow. “These steps, including greater flexibility for banks, are well-aligned with the needs of MSMEs and last-mile borrowers. Seasonal consumption and improved liquidity will help deepen financial inclusion and empower micro-enterprise-led growth”, he said.

Anantharam Varayur, Co-Founder, Manasum Senior Living homes stated “The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent reflects a balanced stance, supporting growth while keeping inflation risks in check. With the GDP growth forecast revised upward to 6.8 per cent, the outlook for the economy appears stronger and more stable. For the senior living housing sector, this stability in interest rates offers comfort by keeping borrowing costs predictable for homebuyers.”

Overall, the RBI’s decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.5 per cent, alongside a neutral policy stance, has been seen as a balanced and forward-looking move that aims to support growth while keeping inflation under check, providing stability and predictability for both markets and consumers. (ANI)