Opinion Trading platforms take off globally amid investor and user surge

NEW DELHI: Opinion trading markets — also known as Prediction Markets — are platforms that allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, and they are rapidly gaining traction globally. These platforms enable participants to trade on the probability of a wide range of outcome-driven events, from economic data releases and election results to sports outcomes and box-office collections.

In the United States, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have emerged as leaders in this space, attracting millions of users and a roster of marquee investors. According to a Reuters report, Polymarket is reportedly in talks to raise $200 million in a new funding round that would value the company at more than $1 billion.

The round is said to be led by Founders Fund, the venture capital firm founded by renowned technology investor Peter Thiel, marking a significant milestone for the sector. Further marking a significant endorsement, X Corp (formerly known as Twitter) announced on June 6 that Polymarket will serve as its official prediction market partner.

Closer home, India’s prediction market space is quietly gaining momentum despite regulatory ambiguity. Founded in 2021, Probo has emerged as one of the largest and most active event/opinion-based trading platforms in India, boasting over 50 million registered users. The platform allows users to trade on real-world events, ranging from sports and entertainment to the economy and breaking news, by taking ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ positions on outcome-driven events and contracts.

One example of a Probo contract is ‘Will UPI transactions value in India be Rs 25,00,000 crore or more in July?’. As of July 4 at 08:00, the contract had 142 active traders, with the market split – 80% predicting ‘Yes’ and 20% ‘No’. Other examples of contracts on Probo include ‘Will USA enter into a recession by the end of July 2025?’, ‘Inflation rate of the US to be 2.4 per cent or more in June?’

Probo has attracted a notable lineup of investors, including Fundamentum Partnership, Elevation Capital, and Peak XV Partners (formerly Sequoia Capital India), underscoring confidence in the growing utility of opinion trading in India’s digital economy.

Globally, prediction markets are being viewed more seriously by institutional investors as alternative tools for gauging probabilistic outcomes of key geopolitical and economic events. A recent example came during the height of the Israel-Iran conflict, when a Goldman Sachs commodities research note, dated June 22, cited a Polymarket contract to assess the likelihood of Iran disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The reference marked a rare instance of a major Wall Street firm publicly using prediction market data for real-world analysis. (ANI)