Shift in financial markets from US exceptionalism to un-exceptionalism triggers U-turn in USD: UBI

NEW DELHI: Amid the ongoing tariff threat environment, the financial markets have begun shifting their perspective on the US economy, which has impacted the US dollar.

According to a report by the Union Bank of India, the long-held belief in “US exceptionalism”, which portrayed the country as uniquely strong and resilient, is now being questioned. Instead, markets are increasingly viewing the US as facing similar vulnerabilities as other economies, leading to a shift toward “unexceptional”. It said, “Market theme shift from US exceptionalism to un-exceptionalism has led U-turn in USD”.

The report stated that the global economy remained strong in 2024, growing at an annualized 3.3 per cent. While the US saw solid domestic demand driven by consumer spending, the euro area remained weak due to the economic contraction in Germany. Japan, on the other hand, maintained resilience despite tighter monetary policies.

Emerging markets presented a mixed performance. Mexico’s growth slowed, whereas Brazil and India continued to demonstrate strong economic momentum.

However, the Trump administration’s changing stance on trade tariffs and uncertainty over economic policies have created a macroeconomic environment in which many economies have lowered their GDP forecasts and raised inflation projections for the year.

The report also noted that the outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain due to the US trade policies. Additionally, the effects of Germany’s debt constraints, coupled with the impact of trade tariffs on the European Union and China, have yet to be fully realized. These factors are expected to lead to increased market volatility moving forward.

Interestingly, the report stated that imposing tariffs can have a more detrimental effect on the country implementing them than on the country being targeted. This insight is particularly relevant as the US continues to pursue its trade restrictions.

The economic impact of these tariffs has raised concerns about stagflation, a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation remains high.

As a result, financial markets have begun shifting their perspective on the US economy. The long-held belief in “US exceptionalism,” which portrayed the country as uniquely strong and resilient, is now being questioned. Instead, markets are increasingly viewing the US as facing similar vulnerabilities as other economies, leading to a shift toward “unexceptionalism.”

This changing sentiment has significantly impacted the USD. Previously, the USD remained strong due to the perception of economic stability. However, the uncertain macroeconomic environment is now putting downward pressure on the currency. (ANI)