Indian stock markets to track Q1 earnings, tariff talks, and macroeconomic data this week: Experts

MUMBAI: Participants in the Indian stock markets will closely monitor first-quarter earnings of companies, progress in the US tariff talks, key macroeconomic data, and other global cues for the trading sessions starting from Monday, according to the experts.

“Looking ahead, two key factors will drive the next directional move: Q1 Earnings Season – Investors will closely track corporate results for signs of margin stability, demand recovery, and management commentary, especially amid a mixed macro backdrop. Progress on the Tariff Front – Any clarity or resolution on global tariff-related tensions could significantly influence risk sentiment and capital flows,” said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities.

“In the upcoming week, markets will closely track key macroeconomic data releases from both India and the United States,” said a market note by the Bajaj Broking Research team.

On 14 July, India will unveil its WPI inflation and CPI data for June, which will offer insights into the domestic inflation trajectory and may influence the RBI’s monetary policy expectations. From the U.S., the spotlight shifts to CPI (YoY) for June on 15 July, followed by PPI (MoM) and Industrial Production (MoM) on 16 July, providing a comprehensive view of inflationary pressures and manufacturing activity.

The week will conclude with U.S. Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims on 17 July, which are key indicators of labour market health. Together, these data points will be critical in shaping investor sentiment, especially amidst ongoing global rate-cut speculations.

Reflecting on the investors’ sentiments, Shah of SBI Securities said that the market may remain range-bound, with stock-specific action dominating the trend.

“A breakout from this phase will likely be triggered by either strong earnings surprises or positive developments on the global trade front,” he added.
The benchmark Nifty index spent the first four trading sessions of the week trapped in a tight 200-point range, reflecting the indecision among market participants. But on Friday, the calm broke. The index opened with a sharp gap down, slipped below its consolidation zone, and faced renewed selling pressure, signalling that sentiment is beginning to tilt in favour of the bears.

“What’s more alarming is that Nifty has now slipped below its crucial 20-day EMA, which has also begun to slope downward — a classic sign of emerging weakness. The momentum indicators aren’t painting a comforting picture either,” Shah added.

Market analysts say that macroeconomic and earnings uncertainties are shaking investors’ confidence.

Amid the uncertainties, in the last week, Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net buyers, making a total net investment of Rs 5,260 crore, according to data released by the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL).

Indian stock markets on Friday ended on a negative note due to a sober start to the first quarter earnings season and a ramp-up in the tariff threat by the US.

At close on Friday, the Sensex was down 689.81 points or 0.83 per cent at 82,500.47, and the Nifty was down 205.40 points or 0.81 per cent at 25,149.85.

With tariff uncertainty rising globally and Q1 earnings just getting started–kicked off by TCS on Thursday–markets are entering a critical phase.
The analysts say that investors are now watching for signs of margin pressures, global demand outlooks, and forward guidance from corporates. (ANI)