India to become fourth-largest economy by 2025-26: NITI Aayog’s Arvind Virmani

NEW DELHI: NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani expressed confidence that India will be the fourth-largest economy in the world by 2025-26, surpassing Japan, as forecasted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“Data will come in April (2026). Sometimes it comes a little earlier in February or March. But, we can only expect the international confirmation (in 2026)”, Virmani said. “I am fairly confident that in 2025-26, our forecast will come right — my forecast and the IMF forecast (that India will become the fourth largest economy)”, he added.

According to the IMF’s April edition of the World Economic Outlook, India’s nominal GDP for fiscal year 2026 is expected to reach around $4.187 trillion. This is marginally more than Japan’s likely GDP, which is estimated at $4.186 billion.

In September 2022, India had surpassed the UK to become the fifth-largest economy in the world. India continues to be among the fastest-growing major economies and is expected to maintain this momentum over the coming years, according to multiple global agencies. Even as India is projected to overtake Japan in terms of the size of the economy, the per capita income in India still remains very low.

Overall, India has made quite a turnaround, climbing the ladder of economic growth. This can be gauged from the fact that from 11th in 2013-14, India has now positioned itself to become the fourth largest economy soon.

To realise the vision of ‘Viksit Bharat’ or a developed nation dream by 2047, India will need to achieve a growth rate of around 8 per cent at constant prices, on average, for about a decade or two, the Economic Survey document for 2024-25 tabled on January 31 asserted. (ANI)