Rate cut unlikely even in February, inflation to dip January onwards, says SBI Research

NEW DELHI: A cut in interest rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely in February due to the persistent inflation, SBI Research stated in its latest report, adding that a slight easing in inflation is expected starting in January.

The report adds that inflation is likely to average around 4.8 per cent to 4.9 per cent for financial year 2025, higher than the RBI target of 4.5 per cent. It adds that the ease in inflation from January will be supported by base effects rather than a significant cooling of underlying price pressures.

“Inflation is only likely to dip from January onwards, but this will be driven by base effects. We are now less hopeful of a February rate cut. We believe the first rate cut is now effectively pushed back beyond February 2025”, the report adds.

According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Tuesday, food inflation was at 10.87 per cent. Notably, vegetable inflation was at 42.18 per cent. Corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban were at 6.68 per cent and 5.62 per cent, respectively. The analysis points out that several large states are facing high inflation, above the national average.

India’s retail inflation was at 6.21 per cent in October, breaching the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 6 per cent upper tolerance level. Chhattisgarh, for example, saw an inflation rate of 8.8 per cent in October, followed by Bihar at 7.9 per cent and Odisha at 7.5 per cent. “There are 7 states whose year-on-year inflation has crossed more than 2 percent in a year. These indicate that the momentum of food prices has continued to climb up”, the report adds.

SBI Research highlighted that the gap between urban and rural inflation remained stark, with inflation in rural households experiencing 1.07 percent higher than those in urban areas. This is mainly due to the higher food prices, and the rural basket of food items weight (54.2 per cent) is higher than the urban weights (36.3 per cent).

It further expects a moderation in vegetable prices in the month of November. “The retail price data till November 11 indicate a decline in vegetable prices. CPI headline inflation has peaked in October 2024, but November and December numbers could still be higher than 5 per cent”, the report adds.

With the currency market experiencing volatility, the report adds that the higher inflation could provide the RBI with an argument to avoid signaling a rate-easing cycle prematurely. “With the currency market being subject to turbulence, we believe a higher inflation number could act as a blessing in disguise for RBI not to signal a rate-easing cycle”, the report adds. (ANI)