Dollar dips, gold soars in Trump 2.0’s first 100 days

NEW DELHI: The first 100 days of US President Donald Trump’s second term has seen the US dollar as the worst-performing G10 currency and gold soaring over 22 per cent, according to HSBC asset management research note.

Trump joined office of the President US on January 20, 2025 and from that time, the US dollar has depreciated over 7 per cent in terms of Great Britain Pound (GBP). “While gradual depreciation may have been a policy objective of the new administration, the depth of the correction has hastened questions about a possible end of US exceptionalism”, said the research note.

The research note says that surging gold price — up by 22 per cent in the first 100 days — has reinforced a sense of investor uncertainty. It says that volatility has been driven by policy uncertainty, requiring investors to not only consider what the landing zone for the US tariff policy might be, but also how much damage may have already been done.

It notes disrupted market correlations, with stocks and bonds, as well as interest rates and dollar exchange rates, exhibiting unusual behaviour. The US equities have also underperformed in the first 100 days of President Trump, with the S&P 500 ranking among the poorest-performing stock indexes globally.

However, Indian stocks have revived after RBI eased interest rates. “Indian fixed income returns were subdued in early 2025 as investors fretted over the country’s economic resilience to global headwinds. But that reversed sharply in March after the Reserve Bank of India finally kicked off its easing cycle,” the research note said.

It highlighted the role of technical factors in bolstering the attractiveness of Indian bonds. The Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to enhance market liquidity, combined with the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation, are expected to create a positive environment for bond supply and demand.

During the period, oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, recently dipping below USD 60/bbl for the first time since early 2021, weighed down by a combination of factors, including increasing concerns about the global demand outlook amid trade tensions and weak US economic data, the research note said. (ANI)