Markets open higher; Nifty above 24,000 despite crude surge and geopolitical crisis

NEW DELHI: Indian stock markets opened higher on Monday, looking past an elevation in Brent crude prices and taking cues from gains in Asian peers, even as US-Iran peace talks came to an abrupt halt after President Donald Trump cancelled a scheduled meeting with Tehran’s delegation in Pakistan. The Nifty 50 opened 0.5 per cent higher at 24035.35 points and the BSE Sensex edged up 398 points to 77062 points. Healthy gains were seen across all sectoral indices with Nifty IT and Nifty Metal leading the gainers.

Despite a positive sentiment in the market, One97 Communications Ltd. (Paytm) fell nearly 7 per cent in early trade after the Reserve Bank of India on Friday cancelled the banking licence of Paytm Payments Bank, prohibiting it from carrying out any banking business and setting in motion the process for winding up. Axis Bank and Shriram Finance were the worst performers in the Nifty 50 index falling 3-4 per cent each. Most stocks in the 50-stock index traded in the green.

The upbeat start mirrored Asian markets, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 adding 1.4 per cent to hit a record high and South Korea’s Kospi jumping 1.83 per cent to scale a new peak. China’s CSI 300 gained 0.25 per cent after industrial profits jumped 15.8 per cent year-on-year in March, accelerating from 15.2 per cent in the first two months. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.54 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.17 per cent.

International benchmark Brent crude rose more than 2 per cent to $107.49 per barrel by 7:35 p.m. ET, while US crude gained 1.79 per cent to $96.19, driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainty after Trump called off talks in Islamabad. However, the US President later signalled that the conflict could be nearing an end, saying mounting military and economic pressure had left Tehran in a weakened position.

Domestically, sentiment remains cautious as investors navigate a mix of geopolitical overhang and earnings-driven volatility.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said markets are expected to remain “cautious and volatile amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.” He noted that Brent crude, trading in the $105-108 per barrel range, continues to act as a key overhang, while foreign investor flows remain under pressure due to global risk aversion, elevated bond yields and currency concerns.

“Overall, sentiment remains fragile and largely news-driven, with elevated crude prices, geopolitical uncertainty, foreign outflows and earnings-related volatility likely to keep markets range-bound with a cautious bias in the near term,” he added.

Sunny Agarwal of SBI Securities said the market is likely to react to the March quarter results, with the NBFC sector one to watch. “Uncertainty in the market still persists as investors await clarity on the West Asia conflict, although we believe that we may hear something very soon on the positive side with regards to development in peace talks,” he said. Agarwal added that the market could open in the green after a sharp correction in the past three to four sessions.

Technically, Nifty 50’s breach below the 24,000 psychological level has set a cautious undertone, with 23,800 acting as immediate support. A break below could open up downside towards 23,600-23,400, while resistance lies at 24,300-24,400. Bank Nifty, trading near 56,100-56,000, shows relative resilience, with support at 55,800-55,700 and resistance at 57,000.

Market expert Ajay Bagga noted that global markets face multiple triggers this week, including earnings from four major FANG stocks and central bank meetings of the FOMC, ECB and BOJ. “However, the Iran peace deal remains the most important catalyst as the global energy supply disruption is raising the spectre of demand destruction, surging inflation and economic damage for the entire world”, he said. (ANI)