After 2-week pause Southwest monsoon set to become active from Thursday

NEW DELHI: The Southwest monsoon rainfall over India, which had stalled for nearly two weeks after the early onset this year, is likely to become active again starting Thursday.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest update, forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over south peninsular India during June 12-15 and over Konkan and Goa on June 13 and June 14. The IMD forecasts that heat wave conditions are likely to continue over Northwest India, with severe heat wave conditions at isolated pockets over West Rajasthan until Thursday and abate thereafter.

The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on May 24, a week earlier than usual, marking its earliest arrival on the Indian mainland since 2009. The normal onset date for the southwest monsoon is June 1. May 2025 was the wettest since 1901 in India, with the country receiving an average rainfall of 126.7 mm last month. The early onset of the southwest monsoon brought continuous rainfall across southern and eastern India, contributing to this record.

#WATCH | Karnataka | Rain lashes several parts of Kalaburagi city as Monsoon arrives in India. pic.twitter.com/9B0zoCBABi

— ANI (@ANI) May 24, 2025

After an early onset, the progress of monsoon had stalled, reportedly on May 29, only to be active starting Thursday, as is expected by the state-run weather office. Monsoons are a key indicator that helps analysts gauge the economic outlook of the country’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

The IMD forecast southwest monsoon rainfall over India to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average. This projection is more than the 105 per cent forecast in the April update. The long-period average rainfall in India is 868.6 mm. The IMD said that above normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September) 2025.

Region-wise, the southwest monsoon rainfall is projected to be above normal over Central India and South Peninsular India (>106 per cent of Long Period Average), normal over Northwest India (92-108 per cent of Long Period Average) and below normal over Northeast India (<94% of LPA).><94 per cent of Long Period Average).

The state-owned weather office said the country’s average rainfall in the month of June is most likely to be above normal (>108 per cent of the Long Period Average). IMD will issue the July rainfall forecast in the last week of June. The country has received excess rainfall so far this season.

The monsoon has onset early on two occasions during the past five years — 2022 and 2024. In 2022 and 2024, the monsoon onset was May 29 and May 30, as per IMD data. IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.

IMD’s operational forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5 years (2020-2024) is in the table below:

Above-normal monsoon rains help farmers to sow more crops this Kharif season, which bodes well for the overall agriculture sector. Agriculture is the mainstay source of livelihoods for millions of Indians. Traditionally, Indian agriculture, especially the Kharif season, relies heavily on monsoon rainfall. (ANI)