CT 2025: Five battles that could decide India-New Zealand final outcome

DUBAI: The ICC Champions Trophy title clash between India and New Zealand at Dubai promises to be an epic sequel to their final in the same competition 25 years back and a trophy win or loss could decide the stories of many stars across both sides for years to come.

Many India-New Zealand clashes over the years have been decided by some massive factors: Be it a run chase masterclass from Virat Kohli, supporting acts from KL Rahul, Shreyas Iyer etc, Kiwi pacers Matt Henry and Trent Boult running through Indian top order and making the scorecard look like a football scoreline or recently, the domination of both side’s spinners.

This Champions Trophy final would be no different. At its best, cricket itself is cinema and has plenty of sub-plots that decide the fate of a match.
Here are some key battles that will define this game:

-Absence or presence of Matt Henry

The Kiwi pace spearhead has been the leading wicket-taker in the competition so far with 10 scalps, averaging 16.70 and having a five-wicket haul to his name.

Henry has troubled India a lot in past, most notably during the 2019 World Cup semifinal where early scalps of KL Rahul and Rohit Sharma pushed India on backfoot during a 239-run chase and contributed to their loss.

With 21 wickets in 11 matches at an average of 21 and a five-wicket haul to his name, Henry has terrorised Indian batting with his pace, line and length.

If he stays absent due to a shoulder injury sustained in the semifinals, Kiwis will still have capable seamers in Kyle Jamieson and Will O Rourke.

However, O’Rourke is not a new ball regular and could be ineffective against Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill, each dismissed twice by Henry in ODIs and averaging 29 and 31.50 against him. Henry has also dismissed Virat Kohli twice and has enjoyed upper hand against KL Rahul, India’s now designated number six.

Jacob Duffy and all-rounder Nathan Smith, two backups, are also a notch below Henry and inexperienced.

If Henry stays, problems could follow for India. Or else, expect Rohit-Gill to feast on other pacers freely.

-India middle order vs Mitchell Santner-Michael Bracewell

Santner (7 scalps at an average of 27.71) and Bracewell (6 scalps at an average of 28.83) have done pretty well in CT 2025 so far, despite playing majority of their matches on Pakistan’s batting-friendly surfaces.

How they squeeze out Indian middle order would be a key. Santner has 16 scalps in 10 ODIs this year at an economy of 4.48. He also troubled India during Pune Test last year on a slow, sluggish wicket, looting 13 wickets.

As per Wisden, Since 2023, he has dismissed Virat and KL twice each, giving just 37 and 2 runs against him. While Rohit and Gill have made a meal out of him with strike rates of 125 and 116.6 respectively, scoring in Dubai would be much tougher.

Bracewell has slipped under the radar with 12 ODI scalps this year at an economy rate of 4.36.

How Santner and co deal with India’s ODI engine, i.e, Virat, Shreyas and KL Rahul, who have perfected the 50-over template with a mix of strike rotation and odd boundaries, would be interesting.

-Rachin Ravindra vs India

The left-hander is in rich vein of form, having made 226 runs and two centuries in this CT. His only failure came in Dubai against India, where he got out cheap to Hardik Pandya for six runs.

While India has largely kept Ravindra silent, with 94 runs in three innings with best score of 75, he will still be a threat as an exceptional player of spin, showcasing his ability during 2023 World Cup in India.

Rachin has scored 489 runs against spin at an average of above 61 and a strike rate of above 112. His eight dismissals to spin have not stopped his free flowing game against them.

-Indian spinners vs Kiwi batters

Last time Kiwis were in Dubai, spinner Varun Chakravarthy, who was playing only his second ODI, dismantled Kiwis middle order during a run chase of 250 runs with fugures of 5/42.

While Kiwis have acknowledged the threat of India’s ‘mystery spinner’, he is not the only one waiting to spin a web. Three other spinners, Axar Patel, Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav, make it a threatening match-up for NZ.

During the last IND-NZ clash, NZ crawled from 44/1 to 93/2 between 11 to 25 overs, choking against Indian spin despite having Kane Williamson and Daryl Mitchell, two elite spin players at the crease. India bowled only one over of pace after sixth over and unleashed a spin choke on Kiwis, which they could do again.

-Fitness and fielding on a hot day

During the title clash, temperature is expected to reach 34-degree celsius. Both sides feature some of the fittest players in the world. How they cope with this heat while fielding, rotating strike, without any cramping, would be a crucial part of this match.

India Squad: Rohit Sharma(c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Axar Patel, KL Rahul(w), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Shami, Kuldeep Yadav, Varun Chakaravarthy, Washington Sundar, Arshdeep Singh, Harshit Rana, Rishabh Pant

New Zealand Squad: Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham(w), Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner(c), Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, William ORourke, Nathan Smith, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway, Jacob Duffy. (ANI)