India’s FY26 GDP growth may exceed NSO estimate after base year revision: SBI report

NEW DELHI: The domestic GDP growth for FY26 is likely to be higher than the National Statistical Office’s (NSO) current estimate once the government releases the new base year, highlighted a report by State Bank of India (SBI).

According to the report, the first advance estimate (AE) released by the National Statistical Office pegs GDP growth at 7.4 per cent in FY26, compared to 6.5 per cent in FY25. Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is estimated at 7.3 per cent, while nominal GDP growth is projected at 8 per cent.

SBI believes that GDP growth for FY26 could be around 7.5 per cent with an upward bias, especially once the base year is revised to 2022-23.

The report added that the second advance estimates, which will incorporate additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026, and the numbers are expected to change following the base revision. It stated, “Growth is likely to be higher once the new base is released.”

The SBI report also noted that historically, the difference between GDP growth estimates of the Reserve Bank of India and the NSO has generally remained in the range of 20-30 basis points. Hence, the 7.4 per cent growth estimate for FY26 is considered reasonable and expected.

It highlighted that the growth momentum is likely to reflect in per capita national income, which is expected to rise by Rs 16,025 annually to Rs 2,47,487 in FY26.

On the sectoral front, agriculture and allied activities are projected to grow by 3.1 per cent in FY26, compared to 4.6 per cent growth in the previous year.

The report stated that the services sector remains the key growth engine, with growth estimated at 9.1 per cent in FY26, higher than 7.2 per cent recorded last year. All sub-sectors within services are expected to grow at a faster pace compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, supported by robust manufacturing growth of 7.0 per cent, the industry sector is expected to grow by 6.0 per cent in FY26, marginally higher than 5.9 per cent growth last year. Mining, however, is expected to decelerate by 0.7 per cent in FY26, compared to a growth of 2.7 per cent in FY25.

The report reiterated that upcoming revisions and the new base year could lead to further changes in these estimates. (ANI)