Rupee likely to inch towards 90 against US dollar by March 2026: Union Bank report

NEW DELHI: The Indian Rupee may continue to weaken gradually and inch towards the psychological level of 90 per US dollar by March 2026, highlighted a report by Union Bank of India.

According to the report, the movement in the currency will continue to be guided by both fundamental and technical factors. From a fundamental perspective, the bank expects the broader trend of depreciation to persist, taking the Rupee closer to the USD 90 mark over the next year. It stated, “By March 2026, fundamentally, we continue to see USD/INR inching towards psychological threshold of USD 90 levels”.

The report stated that from a technical perspective, the domestic currency could strengthen if there are sustained equity inflows into Indian markets or if there is concrete progress in the ongoing India-US trade talks. In such a scenario, the Rupee may move towards Rs 87.80 per dollar, while Rs 88.30 per dollar will act as a key intermediate support level for traders.

On the other hand, any weakness in the Rupee is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs 88.80 per dollar, a level where selling pressure typically accelerates. A decisive move above this level could push the currency quickly towards Rs 89.30 per dollar, the report added. Geopolitical developments and tariff-related news will remain crucial in shaping market sentiment.

For the near term, the Rupee is expected to trade in a narrow range this week with a mild appreciation bias. This trend is being supported by a consolidating US Dollar Index (DXY) and cautious foreign portfolio flows due to high domestic equity valuations. The report noted that if the India-US trade deal is finalized, it could trigger USD 2-3 billion of inflows into the country.

Other supportive factors include Brent crude prices staying below USD 64 per barrel, the low October CPI reading of 0.25 per cent year-on-year which has increased expectations of a December RBI rate cut, and steady domestic SIP flows.

The report pointed out that key global data releases such as US October retail sales, the September trade balance, weekly jobless claims, and the upcoming FOMC minutes will be important for assessing the strength of the dollar and the Fed’s rate outlook. Flash PMIs for India and the US will also help shape growth expectations.

This year, the Rupee has fallen to fresh record lows. The bank observed that the recent move towards the Rs 88-89 range is in line with underlying fundamentals. (ANI)