Post-festive demand remains strong in country as consumption outlook stays positive: Report

NEW DELHI: Domestic demand has remained steady even after the festive season, indicating a positive consumption trajectory for the economy, according to a report by Prabhudas Lilladher, a financial service firm.

The report stated this based on the analysis of spending patterns during and after the festive period across FY2024 to FY2026 to understand whether the rise in spending was temporary or supported by broader momentum.

It stated, “Post-festival demand remains on track”. The report supported it with strong digital payment trends. It noted that the UPI transactions rose sharply from Rs 8,400 bn in FY2025 to Rs 11,500 bn so far in FY2026, reflecting continued strength in digital payments well beyond the festive period.

Credit card spending also increased from Rs 527 bn in FY2025 to Rs 579 bn so far in FY2026, signalling sustained demand from consumers even after Diwali.

The report also noted that broader economic indicators point to strong domestic demand. India’s manufacturing PMI increased to 59.2 in October 2025, while the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for September grew by 4.0 per cent year-on-year. Manufacturing output rose 4.8 per cent, suggesting that producers are confident and preparing for a period of continued demand strength.

The report said India’s consumption outlook in the near to medium term appears positive, supported by a mix of domestic policy measures and macroeconomic factors.

Domestically, tax relief, GST rationalisation, the proposed 8th Pay Commission, and healthy rural incomes driven by a strong monsoon and robust kharif and rabi harvests are expected to support household spending.

Looking ahead to FY26 and FY27, the report expects consumption and private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) to remain supported by policy-driven boosts. These include rate cuts of 100 basis points, income-tax reductions and GST rate cuts, which together will raise household disposable income and reduce effective retail prices.

The report said the combination of these factors will create a favourable environment for both urban and rural households, sustaining private consumption expenditure. However, it cautioned that US trade tariffs and global economic uncertainty could act as a drag on a runaway increase in domestic demand.

Overall, the strong post-festive payment trends and improving industrial activity point to a resilient consumption pattern, keeping the domestic demand outlook on a positive path. (ANI)