Fuel price hike may create near-term pressure on food and quick commerce deliveries: Report

NEW DELHI: Rising fuel prices could create a near-term cost pressure for food delivery and quick commerce platforms such as Eternal and Swiggy, though the overall impact is expected to remain manageable, according to a report by Elara Capital.

The report stated that the recent fuel price hike of around Rs 4 per litre has increased petrol and diesel prices by nearly 4 per cent amid geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices. According to Elara Capital, even if gig workers seek higher payouts due to the increase in fuel prices, the impact on the companies’ earnings is likely to remain under control in the near term.

It stated, “Any increase in fuel cost can directly impact delivery economics by lowering delivery partner yields and potentially increasing the risk of payout-related pressure.” Elara Capital estimated that the average delivery cost stands at around Rs 35-50 per order for quick commerce and Rs 55-60 per order for food delivery.

On a blended basis, the average delivery cost is estimated at around Rs 45 per order for Eternal and around Rs 55 per order for Swiggy. Assuming fuel accounts for nearly 20 per cent of delivery costs, the implied fuel cost per order comes to around Rs 9-10 on a blended basis.

The report estimated that the current 4 per cent fuel price increase would have a negative impact of around Rs 0.44 per order. But the report noted that under a worst-case scenario, if fuel prices rise further from the current Rs 4 per litre hike to nearly around Rs 10 per litre in the coming months, the per-order impact could increase to around Rs 1-1.2 per order.

This could translate into around 4-5 per cent impact on FY27 adjusted EBITDA for Eternal and nearly 10-12 per cent impact for Swiggy, assuming there is no pass-through of costs to customers. Elara Capital said the impact is expected to be higher for Swiggy as the company is still working towards contribution break-even in quick commerce.

On the other hand, Eternal is seen to be in a relatively stronger position due to its larger scale, higher advertising revenue base and better ability to recover costs from a more premium and less price-sensitive customer base. The report highlighted that on an annualised FY27 estimate basis, Eternal and Swiggy are expected to handle nearly 2.7 billion and 1.4 billion orders respectively across food delivery and quick commerce platforms.

According to the report, this additional burden is likely to be shared partly through higher customer charges, partly absorbed by the platforms and partly reflected through pressure on delivery partner economics. (ANI)