Monsoon to hit Kerala coast ahead of normal onset date, positive for country’s economy

NEW DELHI: The Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala ahead of its normal onset date in 2025. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update that this year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 27, with a model error of 4 days on both sides. The normal onset date for the southwest monsoon is June 1.

Monsoons are a key indicator that helps analysts gauge the economic outlook of the country’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors. During the past five years, the monsoon has onset early on two occasions — 2022 and 2024. In 2022 and 2024, the monsoon onset was May 29 and May 30, as per IMD data.

In 2024, the southwest monsoon rains in India hit a four-year high, experiencing about 108 per cent of the long-period average at 934.8 mm, data made available by the state-run weather bureau showed. The long-period average in India is 868.6 mm.

In its pre-monsoon forecast in 2024, IMD predicted rainfall across the country to be above normal, at 106 per cent of the long-period average. In 2025, IMD said the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (greater than 104 per cent of the Long Period Average).

Monsoon Onset: several model’s suggest monsoon Onset over Kerala during 26-30 May.
Video: Windy ECMWF (700hpa winds) pic.twitter.com/jO3neMHn89

— All India Weather (@pkusrain) May 12, 2025

The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala. It is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas.

Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about 7 days. IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.
IMD’s operational forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5 years (2020-2024) is in the table below.

Above-normal monsoon rains helped farmers sow more crops this Kharif season, which bodes well for the overall agriculture sector. Agriculture is the mainstay source of livelihoods for millions of Indians.

Traditionally, Indian agriculture, especially the Kharif season, relies heavily on monsoon rainfall. (ANI)