Mood of Karnataka Chapter 2: Congress yet to make significant gains, BJP hasn’t caught up

Congress and BJP will be affected by desertions, rebellion

Neck-and-neck fight in 20 swing seats

Public TV final survey will be out next week

BENGALURU: With just weeks left for the Assembly election in Karnataka, the state has literally turned into a battlefield with political parties using everything they have against the opposition parties. All the three major parties are putting up a strong show, determined to win the battle of the ballot.

Public TV has made an honest and sincere effort to find answers to questions such as which party will form the next government, whether any party will get the majority votes or not. Public TV revealed the results of its first survey on March 30 and 31. The polls received overwhelming support from the viewers. It also led to a discussion in political circles as being the most reliable survey.

Now, Public TV presents a region-wise survey report of 224 constituencies in the 31 districts. The specialty of the second round of survey is that it was conducted after the announcement of the tickets for all 224 constituencies and at a time when desertions started in the parties. The survey was conducted in every nook and corner of the state and has been impartial, unbiased with no favouritism.

Some of the votes were not considered due to suspicion over authenticity and reliability. This survey is like a semifinal and the final survey will be held next week. More importantly, Public TV will present one more important ‘mother of all surveys’ as the election day draws close.

The results of the first survey was published on March 30 and 31.

Total Assembly constituencies in Karnataka: 224

BJP: 85-95
Congress: 98-108
JD(S): 28-33
Others : 02

Semifinal Survey Result

Total constituencies in Kittur-Karnataka: 50

BJP: 21
Congress: 27
JDS : 01
Others: 01

Total constituencies in Kalyana Karnataka: 41

BJP: 14
Congress: 22
JD(S): 03
Others: 02

Total constituencies Central Karnataka: 25

BJP: 12
Congress: 11
JD(S): 01
Others: 01

Total constituencies in Old Mysore: 57

BJP: 12
Congress: 22
JD(S): 23
Others: 0

Total Constituencies in Coastal Karnataka: 19

BJP: 16
Congress: 03
JD(S): 0

Total constituencies in Greater Bangalore: 32

BJP: 15
Congress: 15
JD(S): 02

Tough fight in 20 Assembly constituencies

There will be tough competition in around 20 constituencies, according to survey and these are the most crucial and decisive ones. The 20 constituencies will decide whether a singly party will win by majority votes or will form coalition government. The voters’ decision will influence on the final outcome in the constituencies.

Influencing Factors

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not been considered in the survey as he is yet to get into the election campaign. The gains and losses have been based on issues like Lingayat leaders like Jagadish Shettar, Laxman Savadi’s desertion, D K Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah’s controversial statements over the Lingayat community, resources used to win elections such as offering gifts and luring voters with money and so on.

Semi-final Survey Result

Total constituencies in Karnataka: 224

BJP: 83-90
Congress: 92-102
JD(S): 29-34
Others: 02-04