Indian economy doing well, may achieve growth at higher end of 6.3-6.8% projection in FY26: CEA

NEW DELHI: Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran on Friday affirmed that the Indian economy is doing well and may achieve a growth rate at the higher end of its 6.3-6.8 per cent projection. “All in all, given the global environment, our economy is doing quite well”, the CEA told reporters at a virtual press conference, soon after the GDP data for 2024-25 and January-March were released.

“And if we continue with the efforts to bring in more foreign direct investment and the private sector, if it continues its increase in capital investment, which we saw in 2024-25 and urban consumption picks up on the back of let’s say, better capital formation, hiring and compensation, then we can probably achieve a growth rate which is at the higher end of this range (6.3-6.8 per cent).”

As was widely expected, the Indian economy grew by 6.5 per cent in real terms in the recently concluded financial year 2024-25. According to NSO’s second advance estimates, the country’s economy was projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. The Reserve Bank of India had projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25.

In 2023-24, India’s GDP grew by an impressive 9.2 per cent, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew 8.7 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Today, the official GDP growth data for the January-March quarter was also released. The economy grew 7.4 per cent during the quarter.

During the April-June, July-September, and October-December 2024 quarters, the country’s economy experienced real-term growth rates of 6.7 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively.

#WATCH | Delhi | “… The IMF concurs, estimating India’s dollar GDP to reach $6.8 trillion by FY 2030-31…”, says V. Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India

Addressing inaugural plenary of CII (Confederation of Indian Industry) Annual Business… pic.twitter.com/gUErodfTY8

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Asked whether unusual monsoon rains will impact vegetable prices, Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran suggested against extrapolating a few weeks of prices and activity. “To say there will be a problem as of now, I think every indication is that crop produce will be good and with adequate inventory, the benign food price trends will continue,” he explained.

Amidst global uncertainty, the CEA said global growth for 2025 and 2026 is likely to slow, but India faces smaller forecast cuts in global forecasts. He supplemented high-frequency indicators for April 2025, showing strong Industrial and commercial activity in India.

“Food inflation remains benign due to good rabi harvest, higher summer sowing, healthy procurernent, and above-normal monsoon. Exports remain robust, forex reserves provide 11 months of import cover. Declining crude oil prices will potentially lower import bills, create fiscal space and alleviate external economic pressures,” he said in a presentation.

The government retains its outlook on 2025-26 growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent, with private consumption, especially the rural rebound, and resilient services exports as the key drivers. Multiple agencies have projected India’s growth to be in the range of 6.3-6.7 per cent in 2025-26. (ANI)