First woman president vs second term for Donald Trump? How US is set to vote its president

WASHINGTON DC: The United States is posed for presidential elections on November 5 (local time) and the race for the White House is down to the wire.

Over 160 million voters are expected to cast their ballots with the results either delivering a return to power for Republican former President Donald Trump (78) or elect America’s first woman in the White House, Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris (60).

According to polls, both the candidates are deadlocked in the race with an estimated over 75 million voters having already voted. Neither candidate currently holds a polling lead in enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.

President Joe Biden (81) who was the Democratic Party candidate withdrew from the contest in July, a little over three months ago after a televised debate with Trump. Following this Kamala Harris stepped in as the Democratic candidate.

Harris will on Monday (local time) campaign in Pennsylvania, then head to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, Trump survived an assassination attempt while addressing a rally near Butler in Pennsylvania where the shooter was killed by US Secret service. Images of him pumping his fist in the air saying “Fight” went viral. The Republican candidate is banking on concerns about the economy, inflation to help him to the White House.

On Monday (local time) he will visit Raleigh in North Carolina, Reading and Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, and the Grand Rapids in Michigan- three of the seven battleground states.

As per the final national NBC News poll of the 2024 US presidential campaign Kamala Harris is being supported by 49 per cent of registered voters same as Donald Trump with merely 2 per cent remaining undecided.

The process of US elections

The US Presidential Election takes place every four years on the first Tuesday in November. On Election Day, People in every state across the country go to their polling place and vote for their preferred candidate and their running mates.

In this election Democrat and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Republican Ohio Senator JD Vance are the running mates of Harris and Trump respectively.

When people cast their vote, they are actually voting for a group of people called electors. This is unlike the process of electing members of the US Congress, who are directly chosen by voters.

Except in the states of Maine and Nebraska, if a candidate receives the majority of the votes from the people of a state then the candidate will receive all electoral votes of that state.

The presidential nominee with the most electoral votes becomes the President of the United States.

The Electoral college is a process in which electors or representatives from each state, in number proportional to the state’s population, cast their vote and determine who will be president.

Each state gets a certain number of electors based on the number of seats they have in the House of Representatives and Senate.

Washington DC gets three electors but other US territories don’t get any. In total there are 538 electors (435 House of Representatives seats + 100 Senate seats + 3 for Washington DC).

A state’s number of electors is determined by adding the number of US representatives plus two, the number of senators each state has. Each elector casts one vote following the general election, and the candidate who gets more than half (270) wins. After ballots have been cast, all votes go to a statewide tally.

Washington DC and 48 states use the winner-takes-all procedure where the election winner receives all the electors in that state.  Maine and Nebraska are the exceptions because they have a proportional system.

A candidate has to “win” at least 270 electors in order to become President. Five times in the history of the US, a candidate has won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College.

In 2016, Trump won the presidency over Hillary Clinton despite trailing by nearly three million votes nationwide.

Projections of polls as of 4-November

NBC News and Emerson College has projected a 49%-49% tie nationally

Ipsos projects a three-point lead (49%-46%) to Harris

AtlasIntel projects two-point lead (50%-48%) to Trump.

Voting for House and Senate also on November 5

The US will also on November 5 vote hold elections for 13 governors and both houses of Congress. Congress consists of the House of Representatives or the lower chamber, where all 435 seats are up for election. Representatives are elected from small districts in each state

The Senate is the upper chamber where 34 seats are being contested with two representatives from each state. The entire House of Representatives will be re-elected, while one-third of the Senate will be renewed.

Currently, Republicans hold a slim 8 seat majority in the House of Representatives, with 221 seats compared to the Democrats’ 214.

As per the Cook Political Report, Democrats are set to win in 205 districts, while Republicans have secure leads in 208 districts. There are 22 “swing” states which will lead to the outcome.

In the Senate, presently Democrats control 47 seats, with four independent senators collaborating with them. Republicans hold 49 seats.

If the number of Democrats and Republicans is equal in the Senate, the decisive vote goes to the Vice President of the United States, who serves as the President of the Senate.

According to CBS News the outcome will be decided by the Senate elections in 11 states: Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, Florida, Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Nebraska. Of these, 5 are “swing” states

Inauguration Day takes place on January 20 at the steps of the US Capitol building in Washington DC.

First, the Vice President is sworn in, followed by the President.

What are Battleground or Swing States?

With most states lean heavily towards one party or the other, the focus is usually on a dozen or so states, known as battleground or swing states, where either of them could win.

This election there are 7 swing states -divided into two groups the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt also known as the ‘Blue Wall’ states

Sun Belt states comprise- Nevada (6), Arizona (11), North Carolina (16), Georgia(16)
Rust Belt states comprise- Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19)

Between November 6 to December 11, the states certify election results. On December 17 electors meet to cast their official votes. Congress convenes to count and confirm electoral votes on January 6, 2025 and the President elect is sworn in on January 20, 2025. (ANI)