The World isn’t big enough for China

HONG KONG: Chinese ambitions – “the grand rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” as Chairman Xi Jinping calls it – are almost unbridled in their scope. As well as seeking to dominate nearby territory such as Taiwan, the mountainous border with India, international waters in the South China Sea and the icy wastes of Antarctica – Beijing has cast its zealous net deep into space too.

A sharp warning came recently from the Headquarters of the US Space Force. In a space threat fact sheet it stated, “Intensifying strategic competition presents a serious threat to US national security interests in, from and to space. China and Russia seek to position themselves as leading space powers while undermining US global leadership. Both countries are developing new space systems to enhance military effectiveness and end any reliance on US space systems.”

Dr Malcom Davis, a senior analyst in Defence Strategy and Capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), concurred. He told ANI: “Clearly, China would like to dominate space in terms of control, and deny space access to the US and to US allies…In every sense of the word, I think the Chinese are determined to overtake the US in space.”

Before delving further into the contents of that American Space Force report, it is pertinent to see how China is already trampling upon international norms on Earth. If Beijing is willing to unashamedly do this on our terrestrial ball, against the wishes of others, then what will it attempt in the vast, uncontested reaches of outer space?

China is planning a permanent moon base, and it will presumably ride roughshod over the US-sponsored Artemis Accords of 2020 that recommend principles regarding moon colonization. A key provision in the Artemis Accords is license for lunar operators to establish “safety zones” around their activities “to avoid harmful interference”. Some 43 countries have signed the accords, but not China or Russia since they are developing their own frameworks.

China’s and minor partner Russia’s proposed base at the moon’s south pole is called the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). Its roadmap was unveiled in 2021, but China revealed further information earlier this month. Five super-heavy-lift rockets are to help establish the first phase of the ILRS from 2030-35, after which it will expand through till 2050. Chinese state media said the extended station will be a “comprehensive lunar station network that utilizes the lunar orbit station as its central hub and the south pole station as its primary base, and it will include exploration nodes on the lunar equator and the far side of the moon”. Power will come from solar, radioisotope and nuclear generators. To date, 13 countries have signed up to the ILRS project.

However, how will China behave on the moon? It has already shown in Antarctica how it despises international treaties. Specifically, China requested an Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) around its Kunlun Station on Dome A in 2013. An ASMA is the equivalent of a lunar safety zone, but China’s request was roundly denied under the Antarctica Treaty System (ATS) since there is no threat to or need for deconfliction in this zone. China insisted it needed the ASMA for precautionary reasons, and the situation has devolved into an international stalemate. Since then, Beijing has spitefully obstructed various unrelated decisions by the ATS.

On the moon, China could just as easily spurn international treaties and efforts to deconflict exploration programs, especially since the south pole is the most favored area for colonization sites. The Outer Space Treaty prevents any country from reserving a territorial claim on the moon, but “safety zones” are the nearest thing to establishing sovereignty there. However, if China were to arrive on the moon first, it could take control of parts of it by establishing its own massive “safety zones” in defiance of treaties or public opinion. Who is to stop it?

Xi certainly has a track record of bullying and disdainfully treating rules and norms. He is ramping up sustained pressure on Taiwan. Since President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration in May, the number of Chinese air defense identification zone (ADIZ) or Taiwan Strait centerline incursions has risen from an average of 7.5 to 18.7 per day. Year on year they are up 73%, and this year’s cumulative total of incursions already exceeds that of 2023. By the end of August, the PLA had intruded 1,986 times, compared to 1,703 for the whole of last year.

It is not just Taiwan that China is intimidating. On 26 August, a PLA Y-9 electronic intelligence aircraft violated Japanese airspace over the Danjo Islands in the East China Sea. This appeared to be the first time a Chinese military aircraft had violated Japanese airspace since World War II. With Tokyo supportive of Taiwan, China is increasingly eyeing the possibility of interdicting the Japanese Ryukyu Island chain, which includes Okinawa, critical to both the Japanese and American militaries.

Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific, for the first time a Chinese Type 075 landing helicopter dock ship operated with the aircraft carrier Shandong east of Taiwan during a surge deployment exercise in August. This was the first time these two powerful naval assets had operated together.

Back in the South China Sea, the Philippines noted the presence of 203 Chinese vessels, the most ever recorded, near its own occupied features last week. These were mostly maritime militia vessels (fishing boats acting at the behest of the state), but also coast guard and naval vessels. Some 71 boats were swarming Sabina Shoal alone, a site of tension between the Philippines and China. Malaysia’s government has been trying to play down Chinese encroachment into its maritime territory in the South China Sea.

Recently, the Chinese research ship Ke Xue San Hao was conducting an illegal survey of Chinese waters at Ardasier Bank within Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone, and before that three coast guard vessels were loitering.

As can be seen from this snapshot of recent nefarious Chinese activity, Beijing does not mind intimidating other nations in order to gain advantage.
Unfortunately, China also nominated space as a new domain of warfare in 2015, and it is boldly staking its claim in this celestial sphere. The US Space Force explained, “China’s rapidly growing space program – second only to the US in number of operational satellites – is a source of national pride and key to President Xi’s ‘China Dream’ to establish a powerful and prosperous nation. Beijing expects space to play an important role in future conflicts by enabling long-range precision strikes and by denying other militaries the use of space-based information systems.”

Last year, China conducted 66 successful space launches, placing 217 payloads into orbit. More than half – 114 payloads to be exact – were for satellites capable of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). China now has 470+ ISR-capable satellites with optical, multispectral, radar and radio frequency sensors that can detect American and others’ military assets. One of the most significant of these is the Yaogan-41 remote sensing satellite launched in December 2023. It allows China to persistently monitor American and allied forces in the region.

According to the US military, since the end of 2015, China’s on-orbit presence has grown by approximately 550%. Quantitatively this is more than 800 satellites and, indeed, as of March 2024, China had more than 950 satellites in orbit. Furthermore, Beijing’s improving space-based capabilities can combine with the PLA’s growing arsenal of long-range weapons to enable long-range precision strikes against US and allied forces.

China is even successfully utilizing reusable spaceplanes. Three launches have occurred, the first lasting two days and the second more than nine months, and both released unidentified objects. The third spaceplane launched in December 2023 and it remains in orbit today.

The US Space Force further warned: “Intelligence suggests the PLA likely sees counter-space operations as a means to deter and counter US military intervention in a regional conflict.

Moreover, PLA academics stress the necessity of ‘destroying, damaging and interfering with the enemy’s reconnaissance…and communications satellites’ to ‘blind and deafen the enemy’.”

Chinese intentions were made manifest in 2007 when it employed a direct-ascent antisatellite (ASAT) missile to destroy a defunct weather satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO). This created more than 2,700 pieces of trackable debris that remain an orbital hazard. The USA claimed, “That missile evolved into an operational ground-based system intended to target LEO satellites. The PLA actively trains on this system today.”

The Pentagon assessed that China “likely intends to field ASAT weapons capable of destroying satellites up to geostationary equatorial orbit (GEO) at 36,000km. In 2013, China launched a ballistic object which peaked at 30,000km, suggesting it may already have a basic ASAT capability against higher orbits.”

Addressing China’s counter-space capabilities, Dr. Davis of ASPI said: “What you’re seeing is that, while the Chinese are developing this sort of direct-ascent, kinetic-kill ASATs, the favored capability for them will be soft-kill systems that are either co-orbital or ground-based, because they can deliver reversible, scalable effects, and they also don’t create clouds of space debris.”

He added: “What they’re demonstrating, perfecting, is the technological means to do these sort of attacks in a crisis leading up to war, to exploit the gray-zone attack using, for example, a dual-role commercial satellite that has an anti-satellite capability.” In fact, Beijing is developing satellite “inspection and repair systems” that could serve as weapons. In January 2022, for instance, the Shijian-21 satellite moved a derelict BeiDou navigation satellite to a graveyard orbit above GEO. “This technology could be used in future systems to grapple other satellites.”

Dr. David Stupples, professor of Electronic &amp; Radio Engineering at City University of London, told ANI that, while the ASAT threat is “very serious”, any attack would lead to fratricide due to American retaliation. “But what China has then said is, okay, you can do all of that, but we will flood space with our signals intelligence satellites and our reconnaissance satellites, etc. and, therefore, we’ll make it very difficult to do that.”
Further evidence of nefarious Chinese intentions is seen in SJ- and TJS-series experimental satellites observed conducting unusual, large and rapid maneuvers in GEO.

The USA believes these are “tactics which could have a number of different military applications”. Additionally, the PLA owns multiple ground-based laser weapons able to disrupt, degrade or damage satellite sensors. “By the mid-to-late 2020s, they could have higher-power systems able to damage satellite structures.”

Dr. Stupples commented: “They do have lasers powerful enough at the moment probably to destroy a satellite in LEO. But they’re also developing satellite-killer satellites which will go alongside another satellite and then aim a laser at the solar panels or antennas … I don’t know as yet whether they’ve launched any, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they had, because they would be testing it against their own satellites.”

PLA exercises routinely incorporate jammers against space-based communications, radars and navigation systems like GPS. There are also indications China may be developing jammers able to target satellite communications over a range of frequencies, including the US military’s protected extremely-high-frequency systems.

Another achievement was China’s July 2021 fractional orbital launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle. This was a world-first, and it marked the longest flight of any PLA land attack weapon ever. In 100+ minutes, it flew around 40,000km.

Dr Davis warned: “We should be very concerned, because the Chinese are clearly developing a world-class military space capability that includes both space support and counter-space. And I think that all the good intentions and flowery language of arms control and regulatory reform aside, the Chinese will use counter-space capabilities prior to or at the outset of the next war. We should expect space to be contested, and ultimately a warfighting domain, where the Chinese will seek to deny us access to critical space support.”

The US Space Force sounded the same alarm bells: “China is the pacing challenge and is rapidly improving its space capabilities to track and target US military forces.” (ANI)