Oil prices likely to stabilize near $65 as Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire: SBI report

NEW DELHI: Crude oil prices are now expected to remain around $65 per barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, bringing relief to global markets.

According to a recent report by SBI, the price of oil depends heavily on Iran’s response to the recent tensions in the Middle East. The report laid out three possible scenarios, each with a different price impact. Now, with the ceasefire announced, the third scenario of ‘ceasefire with Israel’ has come into effect, and crude oil prices are likely to stabilise around USD 65.

The report stated, “Different scenarios being built along the Iran-Israel conflict seem a little far-fetched, especially a worst-case scenario, on oil’s trajectory, given that any sharp increase in prices may not be a long-term phenomenon”.

As per the report, if Iran had chosen a path of substantial retaliation against the US and the conflict had widened regionally, oil prices could have jumped sharply, reaching as high as $130-140 per barrel. This would have created a major shock for oil-importing countries.

The second scenario considered symbolic retaliation by Iran and continued conflict with Israel, which would have kept crude oil prices steady around $80 to 90 per barrel. Now, with a ceasefire officially declared by President Trump, the report suggested that the market is likely to follow the third and most optimistic path, with oil prices falling to around $65 per barrel in the coming weeks.

During the recent Israel-Iran-US conflict, crude oil prices had surged as high as $79 per barrel on Monday, reflecting market fears of further escalation. However, the SBI report also pointed out that some of the extreme projections for oil prices, especially in the worst-case scenario, appear far-fetched.

The report further stated that the only event that could have led to sustained prices above the crude price of $130 would be the use of weapons of mass destruction by either side, a situation so severe that its cost cannot be measured through normal economic models.

United States President Donald Trump announced on Monday (local time) what he described as a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, stating that it would take effect in approximately six hours. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the ceasefire has been jointly agreed upon by both nations and would mark a significant de-escalation in hostilities that have gripped the region.

With tensions now easing, global oil markets may return to stability, which is a major positive for oil-importing countries like India. Lower oil prices will help reduce the current account deficit and support economic growth. (ANI)