India could lose $6 bn in exports to US on 10 pc tariffs, rising to $31 bn at 25 pc: Emkay

NEW DELHI: India could see a loss of around $6 billion, or 0.16 per cent of its GDP, in exports to the US if broad tariffs of 10 per cent are enacted, Emkay Global, a research & investment firm, said in a latest report.

The financial services company said in the report that the impact could increase significantly, reaching up to $31 billion if tariffs rise to 25 per cent. While the specifics of reciprocal tariff measures remain uncertain, a broad country-level tariff on India appears to be the most likely scenario, the report added.

Despite potential fallout in key sectors such as auto, pharma and electronics, the report highlights that India’s most vulnerable industries are apparel and gems/jewellery. Additionally, the report suggests potential “easy wins” in tariff negotiations, such as higher energy and defence imports, which could help mitigate some of the losses.

“We identify these ‘Easy Wins’ as: i) increasing energy (crude oil, natural gas) imports from the US, ii) increase defence purchases and cooperation, iii) reduce tariffs on certain agri/food commodities, and iv) lower tariffs on foreign EVs,” the report said, adding that India should pursue negotiations with the US by offering concessions in some key sectors, which would not hurt domestic industry, but are important politically/economically for Trump, in exchange for tariff mitigation elsewhere”, it said.

The report adds that the broader US tariff war has aims beyond trade policy, with China likely to continue being targeted. It adds that India’s opportunity from this war is limited. “India has not gained global market share in the low-skill areas that China has vacated post-Covid, and China exports relatively more complex products than India (75 per cent of Chinese exports to the world are complex vs 45 per cent for India), leaving limited opportunities for India,” the report added.

Beginning on April 2, the Trump administration intends to implement reciprocal tariffs on trading partners as part of the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan”.

In other developments, Arvind Virmani, Member Niti Aayog said tha a bilateral trade between India and the US is likely to be signed by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, on March 29, the US President Donald Trump said that the ‘tariffs are going to work out well between New Delhi and the Washington, DC,’ expecting a favorable outcome. (ANI)