Monsoon uncertainty, price pressures to weigh on Indian agrochemical performance: Report

NEW DELHI: Higher agrochemical prices coupled with monsoon uncertainty are likely to weigh on Indian Q2FY27E performance. According to a 360 ONE Capital report, the Indian agrochemical sector faces immediate headwinds as a combination of rising raw material costs and unpredictable weather patterns threatens to dampen demand during the critical Kharif cropping season.

The report highlighted that global El Nino concerns are gaining traction, which could severely impact pesticide consumption across multiple geographies, and “India in particular is sensitive to below-normal monsoon, which dampens Kharif season pesticide offtake. Indian agrochemical companies have flagged raw material inflation and ongoing product price increases in post-4QFY26 concalls.”

The domestic challenges come amid significant supply shifts from China, where pesticide production has continued unabated. The report revealed that Chinese pesticide manufacturing surged 23 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 4 per cent month-on-month (MoM) in April, making it the only chemical product to record MoM growth. Chinese players have already raised prices of select key molecules in March on raw material cost inflation.

This surge persists despite the implementation of the “One Certificate One Label” policy effective January 1, 2026, signaling an ample global supply of generics. Furthermore, the cumulative January-April output for Chinese pesticides soared 11 per cent YoY.

Beyond agrochemicals, the broader chemical sector shows a general deceleration in output. The report noted that on a MoM basis, production declined across all tracked products except pesticides. Soda ash production, for instance, declined by 5 per cent YoY and 3 per cent MoM in April due to demand moderation in key user segments, particularly flat glass for real estate in China and some softening in vehicle sales alongside elevated inventories.

Consequently, China soda ash prices have remained range-bound at ~USD 150-160/MT and are likely to stay in this band in the near-to-medium term, devoid of a demand catalyst. As per the report, other primary industrial chemicals also experienced sequential output drops in April, despite maintaining cumulative annual growth. Caustic soda output grew by 9 per cent YoY but declined by 2 per cent MoM, while synthetic fibre production declined by 5 per cent YoY and 11 per cent MoM.

On the other hand, phosphate ore output increased by 9 per cent YoY and was broadly flattish MoM, implying adequate feedstock availability for downstream fertilisers. Nonetheless, January-April cumulative output still grew YoY across most products, except synthetic rubber. (ANI)