WASHINGTON: With just close to four weeks till the United States goes into what will be a defining Presidential election, it remains a race too tight to be called. Even as the candidates engage in a full court press in the last weeks, experts say this is going down to the wire.
Emory University political science professor Zachary Peskowitz predicts that the polls will be a “nail-biter” and that no candidate has a decisive lead in any of the seven swing states. In an interview, Peskowitz says that the electoral college in the US elections will be “extraordinarily close” and the popular vote is going to be “very close”.
Former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are the official presidential candidates of the Republican and the Democratic parties after they accepted the nomination at the conventions earlier this year. The US presidential elections are scheduled to be held on November 5 this year.
Asked about his expectations from the two candidates with regards to electoral college and popular votes, Peskowitz says, “So, I think the popular vote is going to be very close. I think within two or three percentage points one way or the other, electoral college is going to be extraordinarily close as well. You know, it’s quite possible that there will be a narrow victory”.
“There’s even a possibility that it will be a tie in electoral college, 269 to 269 that will end up going to the US House of Representatives. You know it’s going to be very close and it’s going to come down to these seven states. So, all the recent polling shows it’s just very close. No candidate has a decisive lead in any of the seven states and it’s gonna be a nail-biter”, the professor says.
On being asked about critical factors in determining the winner of the White House race, he says, “So, this is going to be an extremely close election. The national popular vote is going to be very close and the electoral college is going to be very close. So, it is all going to come down to those seven swing states. So, you know key issues are going to be mobilizing, mobilizing your voters over the past final few weeks of the campaign, making sure that they get out to vote either in person, mailing ballots and alike and…operations until election day”.
People in every state in the US vote in the Presidential and Vice Presidential polls. When people cast their vote, they are voting for a group of people called electors. The presidential nominee with the most electoral votes becomes the President of the United States.
Except in the states of Maine and Nebraska, if a candidate receives the majority of the votes from the people of a state then the candidate will receive all electoral votes of that state.
The Electoral College is a process in which electors from each state in number proportional to the state’s population cast their vote and determine who will be president. Each state gets a certain number of electors based on its representation in US Congress.
Foreign policy is a “very minor consideration” for the US electorate, says the US professor adding that there will be a pretty small segment of the electorate who will vote based on foreign policy issues in 2024.
“If you look at public opinion polling and what factors have driven voting behaviour in the past, foreign policy is generally a very, very minor consideration for the US electorate, with the exception of cases where US soldiers are actively fighting in a kinetic war. So, Vietnam being a big, prominent example there, Iraq, war in Afghanistan are slightly lesser examples of that. So, it’s a big difference in the 2024 election compared to those previous”, says Peskowitz.
Asked about US support for Ukraine amid its ongoing war with Russia, he says, “It’s obviously, an important issue, and significant amounts of money are involved in it. But, if you look at the issues that the electorate cares about, foreign policy is just a very minor consideration. So, I think there’s some voters who will decide between Trump and Harris on the basis of foreign policy issues in 2024, but it’s a pretty small segment of the electorate”.
While Indian-Americans are a “small” but “significant part” of the electorates in the US, according to Peskowitz, there are are prominent Indian-Americans on both sides.
“Indian Americans are small but significant part of the electorates, growing in some important states. Generally, they lean Democratic not overwhelmingly so, but a fairly democratic group, so they could be important in some of the swing states like Georgia. Michigan. Pennsylvania in particular, they all have relatively large Indian American populations”, he says.
Asked about who he thinks the Indian-Americans will support in the battle between Trump and Harris, he says, “On an average, the Indian American population is more supportive of Harris and Democrats in general. I do think her Indian background is probably a small part of that, but even if it was, you know, a non-Indian candidate top of the ticket, the Democratic candidate would be expected to get support”.
Kamala Harris’ mother was Indian and her father Jamaican. Her parents had immigrated to the United States. She is the first woman of colour and the first Asian American vice president.
Professor Peskowitz believes that presidential debates are “not very significant” in determining election outcomes and have “very short-term effects” on polls. “So generally, debates are not very significant in determining election outcomes. They have a short run, very short-term effects on polls, but typically last, you know, a few days or a week or so.”
“I don’t think the September debate is going to have much of an effect either way nor do I think the October debate between the vice presidential candidates is going to matter very much. I think it’s, you know, all about developments over the next few weeks and mobilising their supporters and getting them to turn out to vote,” he adds.
Kamala Harris appeared to dominate in the second presidential debate against Donald Trump, as the two sparred over multiple polarising issues ranging from abortion, illegal immigration and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. The second presidential debate was hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia, in September.
On the assassination attempts on Trump and what has led to this level of hatred and political violence in the US, he said, “There’s some very intense rhetoric on all sides in the United States. I think you know think more intense than it was 20 years ago, so you know that’s probably a contributing factor. The Butler, Pennsylvania incident, there were obviously some very serious security lapses on the part of the Secret Service and local police officials, so that was very, very serious, potentially disastrous situation that the head of the Secret Service resigned over those lapses and errors. I think that’s you know certainly played a contributing role and why the first attempt was such a close call and so serious.”
When asked whether Trump will benefit out of it, he says, “I think you know if the election was held immediately after the first assassination attempts, maybe. But yeah, this campaign, everything has been living so fast that so many things have happened since then that I doubt it’s gonna have an effect on election there.”
Peskowitz called abortion rights and other reproductive health issues a “strong issue” for the Democrats. He noted that Trump has tried to move away from Republicans’ stance on abortion rights.
“The way I’m thinking about this campaign is there three key issues, the economy, immigration and abortion. So, the economy is the most important one. It’s a mixed bag for the Democrats. Abortion and immigration are kind of the most important substantantive policy issues. Abortion is a strong issue for the Democrats and their positions are more appealing to the moderate, decisive voters, whereas immigration is a stronger issue for the Republicans and their positions are stronger, more appealing for you know, the moderate voter.”
Asked if Harris is on the back foot on immigration with Trump criticising her over the issue, he said, “Absolutely. So I would say that Harris is on the back foot and on immigration and has to defend some policy positions that are not particularly popular amongst the voters are going to be decisive in this election.”
Peskowitz says the economy remains the single most important issue specially with the high inflation rates. “I think the other most important issue, probably the most important issue is the economy. So, the economy is a real mixed bag in the United States, so some factors are very positive, some are not so positive. So, you know on the positive side for the incumbent administration, the Democrats, there’s very low unemployment rates, particular low unemployment rates in some of the swing states like Georgia”, he says.
“But on the negative side, inflation was has been quite high. It’s coming down, the inflation rate is coming down, but it has been quite high over the Biden Harris administration and voters. You many voters have real concerns about that and are very concerned about the cost of living and what they pay for housing, healthcare, child carers, these other big-ticket items”, he adds.
While gun violence is an issue for some of the voters, Peskowitz says that people are more concerned regarding presidential candidates’ positions on issues like the economy, immigration, abortion and reproductive issues.
“It’s always an issue. It’s you know for some voters, it’s kind of a top three, top five issue. It’s will be important for some, but I think attitudes on gun rights and gun control are pretty static right now. People kind of have their position. It’s not changing very much”, he said.
“Whereas they think on these other issues — economy, immigration, abortion and reproductive issues, the views are maybe a little more fluid and responsive to the positions that the candidates are taking and articulating and their messaging and advertising”, he adds. (ANI)