NEW DELHI: The most positive prospects in terms of international trade among the group of top 10 economies are related to India and the country does not seem to be impacted by the global economic slowdown to a large extent, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest Global Trade Monitor report.
The top 10 economies by GDP in 2022, according to the report, include the US, EU27, mainland China, Japan, the UK, India, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, and Russia. These countries are responsible for approximately four-fifths of the world GDP and three-quarters of global exports, with most trade carried out within the group.
The section in the report on expectations for international trade in the next months said the global economic slowdown now is more and more visible. Monthly historical data clearly shows that in the top 10 economies, exports are primarily impacted, slowing down in the majority of economies within the group.
“The picture is slightly more optimistic for imports, yet the situation is expected to deteriorate in the forthcoming months for both exports and imports, which is reflected in the most recent PMI NExO readouts,” the report said. The consequences of the global economic slowdown are not that apparent in the monthly data for 2022 as in the first three quarters of the year, the dynamics of exports and imports were relatively strong in the top 10 economies.
“This should translate in still positive growth in 2022 from the yearly perspective, yet in 2023, global trade contraction may be expected. GTAS Forecasting expects trade recovery to start in 2024, returning to the long-term stable growth path”, it added.
On economic growth, the report said the months ahead will likely bring recession in Europe, the US, Canada and parts of Latin America. With moderate growth in Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, the world economy can avoid a downturn, but growth will be minimal.
Global real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.9 per cent in 2021 to 2.8 per cent in the current year and 1.4 per cent in 2023. Notably, S&P Global Market Intelligence revised down the 2023 growth rate 0.6 percentage point from the last month’s forecast. (ANI)