Crude shock may push India inflation above 6-7 pc, warns Systematix Report

NEW DELHI: Global markets may be overlooking a significant geopolitical shift amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran, according to a Systematix Research report, which warns that this could lead to prolonged uncertainty and economic disruption.

According to the report, “while markets swing between hope and fear with every war-related headline, the bigger picture is a fundamental shift in the geopolitical landscape, one that will likely see frequent eruptions.”

It noted that the global economy is being driven by sharply changing narratives from the US administration under President Donald Trump and responses from Iran, creating “heightened uncertainty, with investors struggling to price in the long-term implications beyond immediate headlines.”

The report highlighted that the ongoing conflict represents “a significant metamorphosis in the shifting geopolitical landscape,” marked by a rebalancing of power between the United States and a rising Global South led by China.

On the economic front, Systematix warned that oil prices have already surged amid the crisis, stating that “Brent crude has already surged toward or above USD 100 per barrel amid ongoing uncertainties, reflecting both physical supply risks and a substantial geopolitical risk premium.”

It further cautioned that disruptions to crude and gas supplies could persist even in the event of de-escalation, noting that “it is reasonable to assume that oil prices may remain elevated for longer.”

The report also flagged mounting fiscal constraints globally, pointing out that “global debt surged by nearly USD 29 trillion during 2025, pushing the worldwide total to a record USD 348 trillion,” raising concerns about governments’ ability to respond with stimulus.

On India, the report warned of stagflation risks driven by high oil prices and weak demand. It said, “a sharp stagflationary impulse from the recent crude oil spike… threatens to undo recent reflationary measures and worsen the household economic situation.”

It added that inflation could rise significantly, stating there is “a reasonable probability that headline inflation in India could climb above 6-7% in the coming months.”

The report concluded that the current mix of geopolitical tensions, elevated energy prices, and fiscal stress points to a prolonged adjustment period, warning that “elevated oil prices, tighter financial conditions, and recurrent geopolitical shocks become more structural features rather than temporary aberrations.” (ANI)